Association of Low Glomerular Filtration Rate With Adverse Outcomes at Older Age in a Large Population With Routinely Measured Cystatin C.

BACKGROUND: The commonly accepted threshold of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to define chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. This threshold is based partly on associations between estimated GFR (eGFR) and the frequency of adverse outcomes. The association is weaker in older adults, which has created disagreement about the appropriateness of the threshold for these persons. In addition, the studies measuring these associations included relatively few outcomes and estimated GFR on the basis of creatinine level (eGFRcr), which may be less accurate in older adults. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations in older adults between eGFRcr versus eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C levels (eGFRcr-cys) and 8 outcomes. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Stockholm, Sweden, 2010 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: 82 154 participants aged 65 years or older with outpatient creatinine and cystatin C testing. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT); incidence rate ratios for recurrent hospitalizations, infection, myocardial infarction or stroke, heart failure, and acute kidney injury. RESULTS: The associations between eGFRcr-cys and outcomes were monotonic, but most associations for eGFRcr were U-shaped. In addition, eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with outcomes than eGFRcr. For example, the adjusted hazard ratios for 60 versus 80 mL/min/1.73 m2 for all-cause mortality were 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.3) for eGFRcr-cys and 1.0 (CI, 0.9 to 1.0) for eGFRcr, and for KFRT they were 2.6 (CI, 1.2 to 5.8) and 1.4 (CI, 0.7 to 2.8), respectively. Similar findings were observed in subgroups, including those with a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio below 30 mg/g. LIMITATION: No GFR measurements. CONCLUSION: Compared with low eGFRcr in older patients, low eGFRcr-cys was more strongly associated with adverse outcomes and the associations were more uniform. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swedish Research Council, National Institutes of Health, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.

Factors Associated With Non-vaccination for Influenza Among Patients With CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Vaccination for influenza is strongly recommended for people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to their immunocompromised state. Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine (non-vaccination) could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake in this high-risk population. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,692 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC) participants. EXPOSURE: Demographic factors, social determinants of health, clinical conditions, and health behaviors. OUTCOME: Influenza non-vaccination, which was assessed based on a receipt of influenza vaccine ascertained during annual clinic visits in a subset of participants who were under nephrology care. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Mixed-effects Poisson models to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs). RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2020, the pooled mean vaccine uptake was 72% (mean age, 66 years; 44% female; 44% Black race). In multivariable models, factors significantly associated with influenza non-vaccination were younger age (APR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.85-2.52] for<50 vs≥75 years), Black race (APR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.43-1.75] vs White race), lower education (APR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.04-1.39 for less than high school vs college graduate]), lower annual household income (APR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.06-1.49] for <$20,000 vs >$100,000), formerly married status (APR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09-1.35] vs currently married), and nonemployed status (APR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.02-1.24] vs employed). In contrast, participants with diabetes (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.87] vs no diabetes), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (APR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.92] vs no COPD), end-stage kidney disease (APR, 0.64 [0.56 to 0.76] vs estimated glomerular filtration rate≥60mL/min/1.73m2), frailty (APR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-0.99] vs no frailty), and ideal physical activity (APR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.82-0.99] vs. physically inactive) were less likely to have non-vaccination status. LIMITATIONS: Possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with CKD receiving nephrology care, younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to have the influenza non-vaccination status. Strategies are needed to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Identifying risk factors for not receiving an influenza vaccine ("non-vaccination") in people living with kidney disease, who are at risk of influenza and its complications, could inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake. In this study, we examined whether demographic factors, social determinants of health, and clinical conditions were linked to the status of not receiving an influenza vaccine among people living with kidney disease and receiving nephrology care. We found that younger adults, Black individuals, and those with adverse social determinants of health were more likely to not receive the influenza vaccine. These findings suggest the need for strategies to address these disparities and reduce barriers to vaccination in people living with kidney disease.

Cigarette Smoking and Risk of Hospitalization With Acute Kidney Injury: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Smoking is a modifiable risk factor for various adverse events. However, little is known about the association of smoking with the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the general population. This study investigated the association of cigarette smoking with the risk of AKI. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 14,571 participants (mean age 55±6 years, 55% women, and 25% Black participants) from the ARIC study visit 1 (1987-1989) followed through December 31, 2019. EXPOSURE: Smoking parameters (status, duration, pack-years, intensity, and years since cessation). OUTCOME: Incident hospitalization with AKI, defined by a hospital discharge with a diagnostic code relevant to AKI. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 26.3 years, 2,984 participants had an incident hospitalization with AKI. Current and former smokers had a significantly higher risk of AKI compared to never smokers after adjusting for potential confounders (HR, 2.22 [95% CI, 2.02-2.45] and 1.12 [1.02-1.23], respectively). A dose-response association was consistently seen for each of smoking duration, pack-years, and intensity with AKI (eg, HR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.16-1.22] per 10 years of smoking). When years since cessation were considered as a time-varying exposure, the risk of AKI associated with smoking compared with current smokers began to decrease after 10 years, and became similar to never smokers at 30 years (HR for≥30 years, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.97-1.20] vs never smokers). LIMITATIONS: Self-reported smoking measurements and missing outpatient AKI cases. CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based cohort, all smoking parameters were robustly associated with the risk of AKI. Smoking cessation was associated with decreased risk of AKI, although the excess risk lasted up to 30 years. Our study supports the importance of preventing smoking initiation and promoting smoking cessation for the risk of AKI. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Smoking is a behavior that is associated with many negative health effects. It is not well understood how smoking relates to the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the community. In this study, we looked at data from a group of 14,571 adults who were followed for 26 years to see how different aspects of smoking (such as whether someone smoked, how long they smoked for, how many cigarettes they smoked per day, and whether they quit smoking) were related to AKI. We found that smoking was strongly linked to an increased risk of AKI. This risk decreased after 5-10 years of quitting smoking, but the excess risk lasted up to 30 years. This study shows the importance of preventing people from starting smoking and to encourage smokers to quit to reduce their risk of AKI.

Effects of Cuff Size on the Accuracy of Blood Pressure Readings: The Cuff(SZ) Randomized Crossover Trial.

Importance: Clinical practice guidelines recommend selecting an appropriately sized cuff based on mid-arm circumference prior to measuring blood pressure (BP). To our knowledge, the effect of miscuffing on BP measurement when using an automated BP device has not been quantified. Objective: To determine the effect of using a regular BP cuff vs an appropriately sized BP cuff on automated BP readings. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized crossover trial of community-dwelling adults with a wide range of mid-arm circumferences took place between March 16 and October 25, 2021, in Baltimore, Maryland. Participants were recruited via BP screening events at a public food market and a senior housing facility, targeted mailings to prior research participants, placement of study brochures in hypertension clinics at Johns Hopkins University, and referrals from physicians providing hypertension care to adults. Interventions: Participants underwent 4 sets of triplicate BP measurements, with the initial 3 sets using an appropriate, too-small, or too-large BP cuff in random order; the fourth set of triplicate measurements was always completed with an appropriate BP cuff. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the difference in mean BP when measured with a regular BP cuff compared with an appropriate BP cuff. The secondary outcome was the difference in BP when using too-small or too-large BP cuffs vs an appropriate BP cuff across all cuff sizes. Results were also stratified by systolic BP (≥130 mm Hg vs <130 mm Hg) and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared; ≥30 vs <30). Results: A total of 195 adults (mean [SD] age, 54 [16] years; 67 [34%] male; 132 [68%] Black; 100 [51%] with hypertension) were randomized for inclusion. Among individuals requiring a small BP cuff, use of a regular BP cuff resulted in a statistically significant lower BP reading (mean systolic BP difference, -3.6 [95% CI, -5.6 to -1.7] mm Hg). In contrast, among individuals requiring a large or extra-large BP cuff, use of a regular BP cuff resulted in a statistically significant higher BP reading (mean systolic BP difference, 4.8 [95% CI, 3.0-6.6] mm Hg and 19.5 [95% CI, 16.1-22.9] mm Hg, respectively). For the secondary outcome, BP differences with overcuffing and undercuffing by 1 and 2 cuff sizes were greater among those requiring larger BP cuffs. The results were consistent in stratified analyses by systolic BP and body mass index. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized crossover trial, miscuffing resulted in strikingly inaccurate BP measurements. This is particularly concerning for settings where 1 regular BP cuff size is routinely used in all individuals, regardless of arm size. A renewed emphasis on individualized BP cuff selection is warranted. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04610775.

Cardiac Structure and Function and Subsequent Kidney Disease Progression in Adults With CKD: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Heart-kidney crosstalk is recognized as the cardiorenal syndrome. We examined the association of cardiac function and structure with the risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) in a chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,027 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study. EXPOSURE: Five preselected variables that assess different aspects of cardiac structure and function: left ventricular mass index (LVMI), LV volume, left atrial (LA) area, peak tricuspid regurgitation (TR) velocity, and left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) as assessed by echocardiography. OUTCOME: Incident KFRT (primary outcome), and annual estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope (secondary outcome). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox models and mixed-effects models. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 59±11 SD years, 54% were men, and mean eGFR was 43±17mL/min/1.73m2. Between 2003 and 2018 (median follow-up, 9.9 years), 883 participants developed KFRT. Higher LVMI, LV volume, LA area, peak TR velocity, and lower EF were each statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of KFRT, with corresponding HRs for the highest versus lowest quartiles (lowest vs highest for EF) of 1.70 (95% CI, 1.27-2.26), 1.50 (95% CI, 1.19-1.90), 1.43 (95% CI, 1.11-1.84), 1.45 (95% CI, 1.06-1.96), and 1.26 (95% CI, 1.03-1.56), respectively. For the secondary outcome, participants in the highest versus lowest quartiles (lowest vs highest for EF) had a statistically significantly faster eGFR decline, except for LA area (ΔeGFR slope per year, -0.57 [95% CI, -0.68 to-0.46] mL/min/1.73m2 for LVMI, -0.25 [95% CI, -0.35 to-0.15] mL/min/1.73m2 for LV volume, -0.01 [95% CI, -0.12 to-0.01] mL/min/1.73m2 for LA area, -0.42 [95% CI, -0.56 to-0.28] mL/min/1.73m2 for peak TR velocity, and -0.11 [95% CI, -0.20 to-0.01] mL/min/1.73m2 for EF, respectively). LIMITATIONS: The possibility of residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple aspects of cardiac structure and function were statistically significantly associated with the risk of KFRT. These findings suggest that cardiac abnormalities and incidence of KFRT are potentially on the same causal pathway related to the interaction between hypertension, heart failure, and coronary artery diseases. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Heart disease and kidney disease are known to interact with each other. In this study, we examined whether cardiac abnormalities, as assessed by echocardiography, were linked to the subsequent progression of kidney disease among people living with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We found that people with abnormalities in heart structure and function had a greater risk of progression to advanced CKD that required kidney replacement therapy and had a faster rate of decline in kidney function. Our study indicates the potential role of abnormal heart structure and function in the progression of kidney disease among people living with CKD.

Growth Differentiation Factor 15 and Risk of Bleeding Events: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Background GDF15 (growth differentiation factor 15) is a potent predictor of bleeding in people with cardiovascular disease. However, whether GDF15 is associated with bleeding in individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease is unknown. Methods and Results The study population was from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study. We studied the association of GDF15 with hospitalized bleeding events among 9205 participants (1993-1995) without prior bleeding and cardiovascular disease (mean age 60 years, 57% women, 21% Black). Plasma levels of GDF15 were measured in relative fluorescence units using DNA-based aptamer technology. Bleeding was ascertained using discharge codes. We examined hazard ratios (HRs) of incident bleeding using Cox models and risk prediction with the addition of GDF15 to clinical predictors of bleeding. There were 1328 hospitalizations with bleeding during a median follow-up of 22.5 years. The majority (76.5%) were because of gastrointestinal bleeding. The absolute incidence rate of bleeding per 1000 person-years was 11.64 in the highest quartile of GDF15 versus 5.22 in the lowest quartile. The highest versus lowest quartile of GDF15 demonstrated an adjusted HR of 2.00 (95% CI, 1.69-2.35) for total bleeding. The findings were consistent when we examined bleeding as the primary discharge diagnosis. The addition of GDF15 to clinical predictors of bleeding improved the C-statistic by 0.006 (0.002-0.011) from 0.684 to 0.690, P=0.008. Conclusions Higher levels of GDF15 were associated with bleeding events and improved the risk prediction beyond clinical predictors in individuals without cardiovascular disease.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Incidence of Dementia Following Hospitalization With Infection Among Adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Cohort.

Importance: Factors associated with the risk of dementia remain to be fully understood. Systemic infections are hypothesized to be such factors and may be targets for prevention and screening. Objective: To investigate the association between hospitalization with infection and incident dementia. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data from the community-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, were used. Enrollment occurred at 4 research centers in the US, initiated in 1987 to 1989. The present study includes data up to 2019, for 32 years of follow-up. Data analysis was performed from April 2021 to June 2022. Exposures: Hospitalizations with infections were identified via medical record review for selected International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes, from baseline until administrative censoring or dementia diagnosis. Participants were considered unexposed until first hospitalization with infection and exposed thereafter. Selected infection subtypes were also considered. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident dementia and time-to-event data were identified through surveillance of ICD-9 and ICD-10 hospitalization and death certificate codes, in-person assessments, and telephone interviews. A sensitivity analysis was conducted excluding cases occurring within 3 years or beyond 20 years from exposure. Data were collected before study hypothesis formulation. Results: Of the 15 792 ARIC study participants, an analytical cohort of 15 688 participants who were dementia free at baseline and of Black or White race were selected (8658 female [55.2%]; 4210 Black [26.8%]; mean [SD] baseline age, 54.7 [5.8] years). Hospitalization with infection occurred among 5999 participants (38.2%). Dementia was ascertained in 2975 participants (19.0%), at a median (IQR) of 25.1 (22.2-29.1) years after baseline. Dementia rates were 23.6 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 22.3-25.0 events per 1000 person-years) among the exposed and 5.7 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 5.4-6.0 events per 1000 person-years) among the unexposed. Patients hospitalized with infection were 2.02 (95% CI, 1.88-2.18; P < .001) and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.55-1.86; P < .001) times more likely to experience incident dementia according to unadjusted and fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards models compared with individuals who were unexposed. When excluding individuals who developed dementia less than 3 years or more than 20 years from baseline or the infection event, the adjusted hazard ratio was 5.77 (95% CI, 4.92-6.76; P < .001). Rates of dementia were significantly higher among those hospitalized with respiratory, urinary tract, skin, blood and circulatory system, or hospital acquired infections. Multiplicative and additive interactions were observed by age and APOE-ε genotype. Conclusions and Relevance: Higher rates of dementia were observed among participants who experienced hospitalization with infection. These findings support the hypothesis that infections are factors associated with higher risk of dementias.

OSA and Subsequent Risk of Hospitalization With Pneumonia, Respiratory Infection, and Total Infection: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: OSA has been linked to microaspiration, systemic inflammation, and suboptimal immune function. RESEARCH QUESTION: Is OSA prospectively associated with risk of hospitalization for pneumonia, respiratory, and total infections? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Prospective cohort. Participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (N = 1,586) underwent polysomnography in 1996-1998 and were followed up through 2018 for infection-related hospitalizations. The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI; events/h) was used to categorize participants as having severe OSA (≥ 30), moderate OSA (15-29), mild OSA (5-14), or a normal breathing pattern (< 5). Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: ARIC participants were on average 62.7 (SD = 5.5) years of age, and 52.8% were female. Severe OSA was present in 6.0%, moderate OSA in 12.7%, mild OSA in 30.0%, and normal breathing in 51.3%. A total of 253 hospitalizations with pneumonia occurred over a median 20.4 (max, 22.9) years' follow-up. Participants with severe OSA were at 1.87 times (95% CI, 1.19-2.95) higher risk of hospitalization with pneumonia compared with those with a normal breathing pattern after adjustment for demographics and lifestyle behaviors. Results were attenuated modestly after adjustment for BMI (1.62 [0.99-2.63]), and prevalent asthma and COPD (1.62 [0.99-2.63]). A similar pattern existed for hospitalization with respiratory infection and composite infection (demographic and behavior-adjusted HRs: 1.47 [0.96-2.25] and 1.48 [1.07-2.04], respectively). INTERPRETATION: Severe OSA was associated with increased risk of hospitalizations with pneumonia in this community-based cohort. OSA patients may benefit from more aggressive efforts to prevent pneumonia and other infectious conditions.

Cardiac Valve Disease and Prevalent and Incident CKD in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

Rationale & Objective: Recent literature suggests improvement in kidney function after percutaneous valvular replacement therapies, implying a pathophysiological contribution of valvular heart disease to chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, this association has not been investigated epidemiologically. We aimed to assess the association of valvular abnormality with prevalent and incident CKD. Study Design: Cross-sectional and prospective analyses. Setting & Participants: Community-dwelling participants (mean age 75.5 [standard deviation 5.1] years) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (2011-2013). Exposure: Valvular abnormality defined as echocardiography-based aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, and mitral regurgitation. Outcomes: Prevalent CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR]) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Incident CKD was defined as progression to eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 with ≥25% decline or hospitalization/deaths with CKD diagnosis. Analytical Approach: We cross-sectionally evaluated the association between valvular abnormality and prevalent CKD with logistic regression in 5,216 participants. Then, 3,752 participants without prevalent CKD were analyzed for incident CKD using Cox models. Results: There were 1.4% (n = 74) with any aortic stenosis, 10.6% (n = 555) with any aortic regurgitation, and 43.1% (n = 2,249) with any mitral regurgitation. After adjustment for potential confounders, any mitral regurgitation and moderate/severe aortic regurgitation showed significant associations with prevalent CKD (adjusted OR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.03-1.34] and 2.82 [95% CI, 1.12-7.10]), as did any aortic stenosis in a sensitivity analysis with prevalent CKD defined including albuminuria ≥30 mg/g (1.83 [95% CI, 1.10-3.05]). Only any aortic stenosis showed an independent association with incident CKD (adjusted HR, 2.12 [95% CI, 1.13-4.00]). Limitations: Despite a relatively large study population, some subgroups had small numbers. Although we minimized reverse causation, we cannot completely rule it out. Conclusions: Different valvular abnormality types were associated with prevalent CKD. Only aortic stenosis was robustly associated with incident CKD. These findings suggest an etiological link between valvular abnormality and CKD, highlighting the importance of clinical attention to kidney function in individuals with aortic stenosis.

Echocardiography-Based Cardiac Structure Parameters for the Long-term Risk of End-Stage Kidney Disease in Black Individuals: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether echocardiographic parameters of left ventricular (LV) structure and function relate to the long-term risk of incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study analyzing 2137 Black participants from the Jackson site of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study from January 1, 1993, through July 31, 2017. Echocardiographic parameters of LV structure and function were obtained from 1993 to 1995. The primary outcome incident ESKD was identified through the linkage to the United States Renal Data System. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) according to each echocardiographic parameter. RESULTS: There were 117 incident ESKD cases during a median follow-up of 22.2 (interquartile range, 15.0-23.3) years. Multivariable Cox models revealed that a higher LV mass index was significantly associated with the risk of ESKD (HR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.21 to 4.68 for highest vs lowest quartile, P = 0.012). The HRs were significant and even higher for LV posterior wall thickness, with slightly higher HRs when their measures in end-systole (HR for highest vs lowest quartile, 4.38; 95% CI, 1.94 to 9.92, P < 0.001) vs end-diastole (HR, 3.50; 95% CI, 1.53 to 8.01, P = 0.003) were used. The associations were not significant for LV function parameters. CONCLUSION: In Black individuals residing in the community, echocardiographic parameters of LV structure, including LV wall thickness, were robustly associated with the risk of subsequently incident ESKD. These results have potential implications for novel prevention and management strategies for persons with abnormal LV structure.

Peripheral Artery Disease and Subsequent Risk of Infectious Disease in Older Individuals: The ARIC Study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association of peripheral artery disease (PAD) with infection risk because PAD has been understudied despite recognition of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease as a risk factor for infection. METHODS: Among 5082 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (aged 71 to 90 years during 2011-2013), we assessed the association of PAD status, based on clinical history and ankle-brachial index (ABI), with infection-related hospitalization (through December 2019) using multivariable Cox regression. We also cross-classified participants by PAD and coronary heart disease (CHD)/stroke status at baseline, with implications for polyvascular disease. RESULTS: During the median follow-up of 6.5 years, there were 1677 infection-related hospitalizations. Peripheral artery disease (clinical history or ABI ≤0.90) was independently associated with the risk of overall infection (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.66 [95% CI, 1.42 to 1.94] vs ABI of 1.11 to 1.20), as was borderline low ABI of 0.91 to 1.00 (adjusted HR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.47 to 2.07]). Results were consistent across major types of infection (ie, cellulitis, bloodstream infection, pneumonia, and urinary tract infection). For overall infection, PAD plus CHD/stroke had the highest HR of hospitalized infection (1.9), and PAD alone and CHD/stroke alone showed similar HRs of 1.6. For subtypes of infection, PAD alone had the highest HR of approximately 2 for bloodstream infection; PAD alone and PAD plus CHD/stroke had a similar risk of urinary tract infection with HR of approximately 1.7. CONCLUSION: Peripheral artery disease and borderline low ABI were robustly associated with infection-related hospitalization of older adults. The contribution of PAD to infection risk was comparable to that of CHD/stroke, warranting clinical attention to PAD for the prevention of infectious diseases.

18-year change in serum intact fibroblast growth factor 23 from midlife to late life and risk of mortality: the ARIC Study.

Objective: Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) concentration increases in response to declining kidney function to preserve normal phosphate concentrations. However, the etiological association of change in FGF23 concentration with mortality has not been examined in the general population. Design and methods: We analyzed 5458 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who had intact FGF23 and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) assessed during midlife (visit 3, 1993-1995, mean age: 58 years) and late life (visit 5, 2011-2013, 76 years) to examine the association of FGF23 change over 18 years from mid-life to late life with the subsequent risk of mortality in late life using Cox regression models. Results: The median 18-year change in intact FGF23 was +17.3 pg/mL. During a median follow-up of 7.2 years following visit 5, 1176 participants died. In multivariable Cox models, elevated mortality was seen in the highest quartile of FGF23 change (ΔFGF23: ≥31.3 pg/mL) (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.61 (95%CI: 1.36-1.90), or 1.37 (1.15-1.64) after additionally adjusting for eGFR change, compared with the lowest quartile (≤6.4 pg/mL)). When both FGF23 change and FGF23 in late life were simultaneously entered into the Cox model, FGF23 in late life, but not FGF23 change, was an independent predictor of mortality; however, we observed a high correlation between FGF23 change from midlife to late life and FGF23 in late life (r = 0.77). Conclusions: Serum intact FGF23 change from midlife to late life was associated with subsequent risk of mortality independent of decline in kidney function. Our findings further support the implications of FGF23 beyond its association with kidney function.

Changes in Serum Intact Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Concentrations From Midlife to Late Life and Their Predictors in the Community: The ARIC Study.

Objective: To investigate longitudinal changes in the blood concentration of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) from midlife to late life and their major predictors in the general population. Patients and Methods: In 14,444 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, we analyzed the association of 31,095 measurements of serum intact FGF23 with age using data from 3 visits (visit 2 [N=13,460; mean age, 57 years]; visit 3 [N=12,323; mean age, 60 years]; and visit 5 [N=6122; mean age, 76 years]) and a linear mixed-effects model. Among 5804 participants who had FGF23 measurements at both visits 3 and 5, we explored predictors of FGF23 change from midlife to late life using linear regression models. Prespecified risk factors were estimated glomerular filtration rate, body mass index, ever smoking, ever drinker, diabetes, hypertension, history of cardiovascular disease, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Results: Median FGF23 concentrations were 41.9 pg/mL (interquartile interval [IQI], 33.9 to 51.8 pg/mL) at visit 2, 38.3 pg/mL (IQI, 30.6 to 48.3 pg/mL) at visit 3, and 55.0 pg/mL (IQI, 44.4 to 70.3 pg/mL) at visit 5. A linear mixed-effects model showed that the association of FGF23 with age was nonlinear, with a slight decline or no change in age 45-60 years and a monotonic increase in age greater than or equal to 65 years (FGF23, +10 to 15 pg/mL per 10 years of age). In a multivariable linear regression model, significantly greater increases in FGF23 were noted, with midlife estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 vs more than or equal to 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 (ΔFGF23, +4.4 pg/mL [95% CI, 0.9 to 8.0]), diabetes vs no diabetes (ΔFGF23, +6.2 pg/mL [95% CI, 4.1 to 8.3]), and hypertension vs no hypertension (ΔFGF23, +4.1 pg/mL [95% CI, 2.7 to 5.4]). Conclusion: FGF23 did not show any major changes in midlife but increased linearly in late life. Reduced kidney function, diabetes, and hypertension were robustly associated with a greater increase in FGF23. Further investigations are needed to understand the potential mechanisms linking these conditions to an increase in FGF23 concentrations.

The association of fibroblast growth factor 23 at mid-life and late-life with subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

Background: Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) regulates phosphorus and is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly in patients with chronic kidney disease. However, data are limited regarding its contribution to different CVD subtypes across wide age ranges in the general population. Methods: Using data from ARIC, we evaluated the associations of FGF-23 with heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and composite CVD (any CVD event) in 12,039 participants at mid-life (visit 3 [1993-1995], mean age 60.0 [SD 5.7] years) and 5608 of the same participants at late-life (visit 5 [2011-2013], 75.5 [5.1] years). Results: During a median of 9.0 years from visit 3 and 6.9 years from visit 5, we observed 1636 and 1137 composite CVD events, respectively. Higher FGF-23 at visit 5, but not necessarily at visit 3, was significantly associated with the risk of CVD independently of potential confounders including kidney function (adjusted HRs for top vs. bottom quartile, 1.56 [95% CI, 1.30-1.87] at visit 5 and 1.10 [95% CI, 0.95-1.27] at visit 3, p-for-difference < 0.001). We observed similar patterns in key demographic and clinical subgroups without interactions. Among CVD subtypes, HF was the only subtype robustly associated with higher FGF-23 at both visits. Conclusion: Higher FGF-23 concentrations at late-life but not necessarily at mid-life were independently associated with the risk of CVD. Among CVD subtypes tested, only HF showed robust associations with FGF-23 at both mid-life and late-life.

Clinically Recognized Varicose Veins and Physical Function in Older Individuals: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Although a few studies reported an association between varicose veins and physical function, this potentially bidirectional association has not been systematically evaluated in the general population. METHOD: In 5 580 participants (aged 71-90 years) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, varicose veins were identified in outpatient and inpatient administrative data prior to (prevalent cases) and after (incident cases) visit 5 (2011-2013). Physical function was evaluated by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB, score ranging from 0 to 12). We evaluated (i) cross-sectional association between prevalent varicose veins and physical function, (ii) association of prevalent varicose veins with subsequent changes in physical function from visit 5 to visits 6 (2016-2017) and 7 (2018-2019), and (iii) association of physical function at visit 5 with incident varicose veins during a median follow-up of 3.6 years (105 incident varicose veins among 5 350 participants without prevalent cases at baseline). RESULTS: At baseline, varicose veins were recognized in 230 (4.1%) participants and cross-sectionally associated with reduced physical function. Longitudinally, prevalent varicose veins were not significantly associated with a decline in SPPB over time. In contrast, a low SPPB ≤6 was associated with a greater incidence of varicose veins compared to SPPB ≥10 (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13 [95% confidence interval = 1.19, 3.81]). CONCLUSION: In community-dwelling older adults, varicose veins and low physical function were associated cross-sectionally. Longitudinally, low physical function was a risk factor for incident varicose veins, but not vice versa. Our findings suggest an etiological contribution of low physical function to incident varicose veins.

Echocardiographic measures and subsequent decline in kidney function in older adults: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

AIMS: Heart failure increases the risk of kidney disease progression. However, whether cardiac function and structure are associated with the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not well characterized in a community setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 4188 participants (mean age 75 years and 22% blacks) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study without prevalent CKD in 2011-13, we examined the association of echocardiographic measures of left ventricular (LV) mass index, ejection fraction, left atrial volume index (LAVi), right ventricular (RV) fractional area change, and peak RV-right atrium (RA) gradient, with the subsequent risk of incident CKD, as defined by >25% decline to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, hospitalization with CKD diagnosis, or incident end-stage kidney disease. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). The risk of incident CKD was monotonically increased with each of higher LV mass index [adjusted HR 2.61 (1.92-3.55) for highest quartile (Q4) vs. lowest (Q1)], lower ejection fraction [1.54 (1.17-2.04) for Q1 vs. Q4], higher LAVi [2.12 (1.56-2.89) for Q4 vs. Q1], and higher peak RV-RA gradient [2.17 (1.45-3.25) for Q4 vs. Q1] but not with RV function. The associations were consistent between subgroups by sex and race. CONCLUSION: Among community-dwelling older individuals, LV mass index, ejection fraction, LAVi, and peak RV-RA gradient were independently associated with the risk of incident CKD. Our results further support that heart disease is associated with the risk of kidney disease progression and suggest the value of echocardiography for assessing cardiac and kidney health in older populations.